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Table 3 Detail of simulation scenarios

From: Transportation energy consumption and emissions - a view from city of Indonesia

Variables

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

 

Normal Growth (reference scenario)

Partial effort

Integrated transportation

Private vehicle growth

Continue to increase: 12% p.a

Continue to increase: 12% p.a

Starting in 2020, the level gradually decreases by 8%

Public transport growth

Gradually decrease by 1% p.a (bus type) and gradually increase by 2% p.a (microbus type)

From 2020, gradually increase by 1% (Bus rapid transit)

From 2020, it gradually increase by 3% p.a (integrated transportation (Bus rapid transit, rail transport)

Emissions standard

Euro II

Euro III

Euro III

Split mode between private and public transportation

53:47 (based on 2010 condition)

Starting in 2020, the level of public transportation gradual increases to 50%

From 2020, gradually increase to 70%

  1. The above assumptions of future trends are adapted from Transport Master Plan of Padang 2030, and the authors’ own rationales
  2. Emission standard is adopted from the Ministry of Environment Regulation